It's been said that economic crisis is global, so I'm gonna depict my very personal point of view about the economic situation that surrounds me.It's not a secret that Mexico, as many other countries in the world, depends in great part on the United States economics.
From this scenario, Mexico separate from other countries in two main branches: Tourism and the dollar supply from Mexicans working in the US. In fact, after our oil, dollar supply from America is our main GDP (Gross Domestic Product). And most of our tourists are from the US.
Our President, included the Economic Secretary have been said that we'll not take the direct hit of the global crisis, that our inflation rate is one of the lowest in Latin America, and there's nothing to worry about.
But the press replies that that's an optimistic way of seeing things, but not based in facts. This is something I'm not informed enough to tell you whose right or wrong.
Locally, I've seen that self-employed, specially construction-related ones (from contractors to temporary laborers) have already felt the lack of work opportunities. On the other hand, Sinaloa and particularly Culiacan, have strong economic basis, specially because it's an agricultural state, and produce is the basic for any country.
After meditating a little about our expectations as a nation, I sense that our future depends in great part on the events that about to happen in our neighbor country at the North. I really think that the worst part hasn't arrived yet, not to Mexico. I think there's a natural delay on our country's reaction to the imbalance at the North, so, if America continues in it's downhill, sooner or later we'll see and feel the real impact on our own side of the border.
But even if our country enters a recession, Sinaloa won't be one of the severe affected. This is a strong State, specially because we have a history dealing with problems of a different kind and being successful about it.
I encourage to any of my readers to come and spend your vacations in Mexico. If you're looking for fun and relaxation, we have them of any kind.
Take care of your money, save some to buy salvia!
It's true that there is risk right now, but the people who make money are they ones who take risks. When unemployment is higher, wages are lower. When businesses close, rent is cheaper. So there is a benefit to being at the bottom of a business cycle. You can get things cheap, and then ride the wave up when it comes.
ReplyDeleteOf course, you have to time the market properly, or you will lose everything! That's the key, to know when the market is at the bottom and about to go up.
The reason why construction projects are the first to go down is because construction is very expensive, and companies rely on capital markets to loan money for the construction. The current economic crisis in the capital markets, so this is hitting construction especially hard. If you can't raise $200 million to finance a new factory or hotel, it won't be built.
ReplyDeleteAgriculture is a safe industry, because people will always need to eat. Maybe they will switch to cheaper food, but they will always need to eat something.